Speaking at DICE Europe last week, Michael Pachter discussed the end of the console era, something people have been predicting for a while before PlayStation 4 and Xbox One even released on the market. "This is the last real console cycle", according to Pachter. Here's why.
"I don't mean that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo will go bankrupt and shut down - they will not. Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS. The 3DS is selling about 15 million units a year, the DS had five consecutive years where it sold more than 26 million. So about half as big.
"So when I say that this console cycle is the last console cycle, the reason is that console games shouldn't require a console. And I'm not talking about the cloud."
Pachter thinks that, in the very near future, people won't need a console anymore, just a CPU, a GPU, a storage, a controller and a display. Something set top box and smartphones will be able to offert in the next few years as they get more and more sophisticated.
This idea is based on some data, which state that console can't sell more than they did in the last generation of hardware.
"The console installed base is as big as it's ever going to get. [This] generation is not going to be bigger than the last generation. We're going to be about the same. The Wii U is going to sell 20 million units compared to 100 million for the Wii. The PlayStation 4 is going to sell 120 million or 130 million - that's great. The Xbox One will sell 100 million to 110 million - that's great. Add it all together and it's 260 million units, maybe, and the last cycle was 270 million."
Many thought cloud could be the future of video games, being platform-agnostic, anyway Pachter is offering a pretty different vision of the next few years. Are smartphone and set top box going to be the future just because of their user-friendliness?
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